The phrase “House of Cards” is commonly associated today with political intrigue and power struggles, popularized by a well-known Netflix series. Yet its original meaning is far more literal and far more fragile: a structure so delicately balanced that even a small disturbance can cause it to collapse. According to new research by Sarah Thiele, formerly a PhD student at the University of British Columbia and now a researcher at Princeton University, this metaphor may be an unsettlingly accurate description of today’s satellite mega constellations. In a recent preprint published on arXiv, Thiele and her colleagues argue that modern satellite networks in low Earth orbit (LEO) are built on an increasingly unstable foundation, vulnerable to rare but potentially catastrophic events.
Satellite mega constellations—vast fleets of thousands of satellites designed to provide global internet, navigation, and communication services—have expanded rapidly over the past decade. Companies such as SpaceX, with its Starlink network, have transformed Earth’s orbital environment into one of the most densely populated regions of space in human history. While these systems promise enormous benefits, from bridging the digital divide to enabling real-time global connectivity, the study highlights an uncomfortable truth: the very density that makes these networks powerful also makes them dangerously fragile.
The researchers support their argument with striking statistics. Across all LEO mega constellations, satellites experience “close approaches”—defined as passing within one kilometer of another satellite—approximately once every 22 seconds. Within the Starlink constellation alone, such close encounters occur roughly every 11 minutes. These numbers reveal an orbital environment where near-misses are no longer exceptional events but a constant feature of daily operations. To avoid collisions, each Starlink satellite performs an average of 41 course-correction maneuvers per year, continuously adjusting its trajectory to stay out of harm’s way.
At first glance, this relentless maneuvering might appear reassuring. After all, it suggests that collision-avoidance systems are functioning as designed. However, engineers and risk analysts understand that complex systems rarely fail during routine operations. Instead, disasters tend to emerge from rare, unusual conditions—so-called “edge cases”—that stress systems in ways they were never optimized to handle. In the context of satellite mega constellations, the study identifies solar storms as one of the most dangerous of these edge cases.
Solar storms disrupt satellite operations through two primary mechanisms. The first is atmospheric heating. When intense solar activity interacts with Earth’s magnetic field, it causes the upper atmosphere to heat up, expand, and become denser. For satellites in low Earth orbit, this translates into increased atmospheric drag. As drag increases, satellites lose altitude more rapidly and must burn additional fuel to maintain their orbits. At the same time, the changing density of the atmosphere introduces uncertainty into orbital predictions, making it harder to determine precisely where each satellite will be at any given moment. This uncertainty forces operators to perform even more collision-avoidance maneuvers, placing additional strain on both fuel reserves and control systems.
The May 2024 “Gannon Storm” illustrates the scale of this effect. During this solar storm, more than half of all satellites in LEO were forced to expend fuel on drag-related adjustments. While the systems largely survived the event, it served as a warning of how quickly routine operations can become precarious when space weather turns hostile.
The second effect of solar storms is potentially even more dangerous. Intense solar activity can interfere with, degrade, or completely disable satellite navigation and communication systems. If satellites lose their ability to determine their positions accurately or receive commands from the ground, they may be unable to respond to imminent collision threats. When this loss of control coincides with increased atmospheric drag and positional uncertainty, the risk escalates dramatically. A satellite that cannot maneuver effectively becomes a passive projectile in an already crowded orbital environment.
To quantify how quickly such a scenario could spiral out of control, Thiele and her colleagues introduced a new metric known as the Collision Realization and Significant Harm (CRASH) Clock. Rather than focusing on long-term outcomes, this metric measures how fast a crisis could begin if satellite avoidance systems were compromised. The results are alarming. As of June 2025, the researchers estimate that a complete loss of command over collision-avoidance maneuvers would lead to a catastrophic satellite collision in just 2.8 days. By contrast, in 2018—before the rapid growth of mega constellations—similar conditions would have allowed approximately 121 days before such a collision became likely.
Even short disruptions carry serious risks. According to the study, losing control of avoidance maneuvers for just 24 hours results in a 30 percent chance of a major collision. Such an event could generate large amounts of debris, potentially triggering a cascading chain reaction known as Kessler syndrome. While Kessler syndrome itself unfolds over decades, the initial trigger—a single major collision—could occur in a matter of days under current orbital conditions.
One of the most troubling aspects of this risk is how little warning solar storms provide. In many cases, operators receive only one or two days’ notice before a storm impacts Earth. Even with advance warning, there are limited actions that satellite operators can take beyond attempting to protect sensitive electronics and maintain control. Solar storms create a rapidly changing and unpredictable environment that requires constant, real-time monitoring and intervention. If real-time control is lost, the study suggests there may be only a narrow window—measured in days rather than weeks—to restore functionality before a catastrophic failure occurs.
This concern is far from hypothetical. While the 2024 Gannon Storm was the strongest solar storm in decades, it was not the most powerful ever recorded. That distinction belongs to the Carrington Event of 1859, an extreme solar storm that caused widespread disruptions to telegraph systems on Earth. If a storm of comparable magnitude were to occur today, it could disrupt satellite control systems for far longer than three days. In such a scenario, a single natural event—one that has already happened in recorded history—could severely damage global satellite infrastructure and potentially render near-Earth space unusable for generations.
The implications of this research force a difficult but necessary conversation. Satellite mega constellations undeniably offer immense benefits to modern society, enabling communication, navigation, disaster response, and scientific research on a global scale. Yet these benefits come with systemic risks that extend far beyond individual companies or missions. When the potential outcome includes the loss of access to space for decades—or even centuries—due to a single extreme solar storm, the stakes become impossible to ignore.
Thiele and her colleagues do not argue against satellite networks outright. Instead, their work highlights the urgent need for realistic risk assessment, improved space-weather resilience, and coordinated international governance of Earth’s orbital environment. A connected sky may be one of humanity’s greatest technological achievements, but if it truly rests on a house of cards, then understanding and reinforcing its foundations is not optional—it is essential for the future of space itself.
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